Netanyahu Plans to Attack Iran and 'Lure Trump Into War,' Israeli Media Reports

"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has discussed with Trump several possible levels of American backing, ranging from active military support for a kinetic strike – such as intelligence, refueling or other assistance – to more limited political backing for a coercive ultimatum," David Ignatius wrote in The Washington Post on Thursday. He noted the paper's report the previous day: U.S. military intelligence assessed in January that, absent an agreement, Israel would probably strike Iran's nuclear facilities, most likely the Fordow enrichment plant, in the first half of 2025.

Israel lacks "bunker buster" bombs and the capacity to mount a sustained air attack that would destroy Iran's entire nuclear program. That would take the GBU-57A/B MOP, the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 14,000-kilogram (31,000-pound) monster that needs a B-2 bomber.

Israel has smaller bunker busters, so whatever damage it could do would set back Iran anywhere between six and 18 months, according to rough estimates. That's not insignificant, but it carries risks. A sense of urgency prevails: Israeli intelligence estimates that Iran now has uranium-enrichment capabilities reaching the 90 percent military-grade level and can theoretically make several bombs in several months if it goes that route.

Despite the threat and challenges that Iran poses, the real urgency isn't uranium enrichment, it's all about Netanyahu's political considerations. By attacking Iran, with or without the United States, he seeks to turn the October 7, 2023, calamity into what he believes would be an epic strategic triumph.

Iran, not Gaza or the Palestinians, has always been Netanyahu's claim to fame and how he defines his self-ordained role as the savior of Israel and Western civilization. That's why, while the hostage deal and the Gaza cease-fire are rightly getting all the attention, we should pay close attention to his Iran policy.