Poll: Half of Americans Think U.S. Will No Longer be a Global Superpower Within Ten Years

Among 15 potential future scenarios involving instability or political violence, the one that most Americans consider likely in the next decade is that the U.S. ceases to be a global superpower (50% say this), followed by a total collapse of the U.S. economy (47%). Each of the 15 dire scenarios is considered somewhat or very likely in the next decade by at least 20% of Americans.

[...] 37% of Americans say [a civil war] is at least somewhat likely to occur.

[...] After an end to the U.S.'s global-superpower status and economic collapse, the next most likely scenario is that the U.S. will cease to be a democracy (39% say this is likely within the next decade). Slightly more say it's likely the U.S. will become a fascist dictatorship (31%) than say it will become a communist dictatorship (21%). (The poll didn't ask whether people believe a given scenario has already occurred, so some people who believe this probably are included among those who said each scenario is likely.)

Republicans are more likely than Democrats to believe nearly all of the scenarios asked about are likely within the next 10 years. Two-thirds of Republicans (65%) believe that total economic collapse is at least somewhat likely, compared to only 38% of Democrats. Around half of Republicans (48%) say it's likely that the government will confiscate citizens' firearms; only 17% of Democrats say this. Republicans are also more likely than Democrats to believe there will be a total breakdown of law and order (49% vs. 31%) and that the U.S. will be invaded by a foreign country (41% vs. 24%).

While a similar share of Republicans and Democrats believe it's at least somewhat likely that the U.S. will cease to be a democracy in the next decade, there is disagreement as to which type of government is likely to replace it. Democrats are slightly more likely than Republicans to say the U.S. will be a fascist dictatorship (37% vs. 32%). Republicans, on the other hand, are three times as likely as Democrats to say it will be a communist dictatorship (31% vs. 13%).

In terms of the possibility of a civil war, Republicans are likelier than Democrats to believe there will be one between members of each party (45% vs. 35%) or between people from red and blue states (36% vs. 30%). Democrats are slightly more likely than Republicans to believe there will be a war between the poor and rich (37% vs. 25%) or between cities and rural areas (23% vs. 20%). Democrats and Republicans are equally likely (31%) to expect a civil war between racial groups.

[...] Would the government be able to defend itself against an armed citizen uprising? Americans are twice as likely to believe the military and law enforcement would prevail against armed rebels (51%) as they are to say they would fail (26%). While Republicans and Independents have similar expectations on the matter, Democrats are far more optimistic about the government's prospects: 68% say the military and law enforcement are at least somewhat likely to succeed, relative to 44% of Republicans and Independents.