Iran nuclear weapons 'years away'

BBC
Sep. 05, 2005

Iran is still several years away from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability, according to a study published by an influential London-based think tank.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies has assessed Iran's nuclear, chemical, biological and long-range missile activities.

It says a diplomatic showdown with the European Union and the United States could be inevitable.

Iran's political restraint thus far may not last, the report's authors say.

"Iran's Strategic Weapons Programmes - A Net Assessment" is a study of Iran's strategic weapons capability.

While it charts the political history and progress of Iran's nuclear programmes since its origins under the Shah in the late 1950s, it does not seek to provide an assessment of Iran's political intentions.

What matters to arms control experts is how far advanced Iran is in its quest to be able to produce and enrich uranium.

Iran, of course, says its wants this capability to provide fuel for power-generating reactors.

But the self-same technology could also provide the fissile material for a bomb.

Strained restraint

Iran, the report notes, has acknowledged a long history of undeclared nuclear activities, extending over nearly 20 years.

And it is this pattern of activity that explains the European Union's demand, backed by the Americans, that Iran should voluntarily forego any enrichment capability.

Up to now, Iran has been willing to accept some temporary restrictions on its activities for political reasons.

But the report's authors are not optimistic that such restraint will continue.

Iran's recent decision to resume uranium conversion risks the matter being reported to the UN Security Council, a process that could eventually lead to sanctions against Tehran.

Missile work

This crisis is on a slow burn.

Iran, the report says, is still several years away from having a nuclear weapons capability.

It faces two great technical hurdles - firstly, to produce sufficient fissile material and secondly, to build a functioning warhead.

Nonetheless, its authors believe that a diplomatic showdown at some point may be inevitable.

The report sheds little light on Iran's potential chemical and biological weapons programmes.

But it does give considerable detail on its long-range missile programme, where it says there have been considerable technical advances in recent years.

Iran seems to be focusing on fielding more of its Shahab-3 systems, a variant of a North Korean missile, capable of hitting targets in Israel, much of Turkey and southern Russia.