Schwarzenegger's Initiatives Lag as Approval Falls to New Low

Bloomberg
Aug. 27, 2005

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's approval rating fell to a new low, and most voters don't support his initiatives to redraw political lines and give him more power over the budget, a poll found.

Sixty percent of Californians likely to vote say a special election on the Republican governor's proposals shouldn't have been called, according to a poll released today by the Public Policy Institute of California. The election is set for Nov. 8. Half of likely voters say they disapprove of Schwarzenegger's performance, the poll found.

``The reasons for the special election and the reasons for the specific proposals the governor is endorsing are not something that are energizing the public right now or generating a lot of support,'' Mark Baldassare, the pollster for the San Francisco-based institute, said in a phone interview.

Schwarzenegger next month plans to step up his campaign for the initiatives, which are opposed by unions, Democrats and some members of Congress as his popularity continues to slip. A year ago, nearly two-thirds of Californians supported the governor.

``He's starting in the hole,'' said Barbara O'Connor, director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and Media at California State University, Sacramento.

Schwarzenegger's Numbers

About 41 percent of voters approve of the governor's performance, the latest poll found. In May, 46 percent said they disapproved of his record, and 45 percent approved.

Support for Schwarzenegger's redistricting measure is waning, the poll found. Forty-nine percent oppose the idea, and 34 percent support it, compared with 40 percent who opposed it in May, when 41 percent were in favor.

An initiative that would give the governor more power over the budget during fiscal crises is lagging 61 percent to 28 percent. Another that would add three years to the amount of time it takes for teachers to get tenure is leading 49 percent to 42 percent.

Todd Harris, a spokesman for the governor's political campaign, said no conclusions can be drawn from the poll because the governor's campaign hasn't begun. A poll by the institute in January 2004 showed that Schwarzenegger's referendum on a record bond sale had more opposition than support, Harris said. After two months of campaigning, the measure passed in a landslide.

``Our campaign hasn't even started yet,'' Harris said. ``So, I don't put a lot of stock in polls that are conducted before the campaign has started.''

The institute is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization based in San Francisco. The poll is based on telephone interviews between Aug. 8 and Aug. 15 with 2,004 adults, 988 of who were deemed likely to vote in the next election. The results have a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Selling It Again

The governor has been criticized in advertisements by the California Nurses Association, a union that publicizes corporate donations to Schwarzenegger's campaigns.

Schwarzenegger won election casting himself as a political outsider, and his approval rating has fallen because voters now see him as little different from other politicians, said O'Connor. For his measures to pass, she said, Schwarzenegger will have to convince the public his ideas are essential to making the state government more responsive to the public, reprising the message that sent him to victory in 2003.

``Can he sell it again? I don't know,'' said O'Connor. ``If anybody can, he can.''

Fundraising

Schwarzenegger has raised more than $16 million this year for his main political committee, which is funding the ballot fight. Donations came from the chief executives of Yahoo! Inc. and Cisco Systems Inc. During a radio interview yesterday, Schwarzenegger said he will begin campaigning in earnest next month, after voters return from vacation.

O'Connor said spending for eight measures on the ballot, not all of which are endorsed by Schwarzenegger, may exceed $400 million. Measures aimed at curbing drug prices and political spending by public-employee unions may attract much of the spending, she said.

Last week, the Federal Election Commission ruled that members of Congress can raise unlimited sums to finance campaigns related to the California measures, allowing a bipartisan group to fund a campaign to defeat redistricting.

Schwarzenegger is seeking to strip the Democrat-controlled legislature of its power to draw districts for seats in Congress and the state's Assembly and Senate. It is intended to make political races in the state more competitive and could allow districts to be redrawn in time for the 2006 elections.