Striking Iran would shoot up oil prices to 400 dollars

alJazeera
Oct. 03, 2005

A senior Revolutionary Guards commander warns if Iran was attacked by Israel or the United states, oil prices on the international markets could reach $400 a barrel, , according to Persian-language news websites.

So far negotiation between the Islamic Republic and the West over its nuclear program are carried out in the framework of one of three doctrines; “Carrot and Stick”, “Good Cop, Bad Cop”, and “Trigger Mechanism”, said Brigadier General Hassan Abbasi, the head of the Centre for Research on Security Without Borders Doctrines.

Abbasi described the European Union’s latest doctrine concerning Iran’s nuclear ambitions as the “Chicken Strategy”, where “both parties follow a collision course at such fast speeds until one side eventually backs off”.

“This is the first time when the strategic balance between both sides is equal and Iran’s strategic stance is no longer from a position of weakness”, Abbasi said.

He moreover criticised the policy of the previous Iranian government which permitted monitors inspect the country's nuclear facilities and surrendered to Western demands to suspend uranium enrichment activities.

The Revolutionary Guards General warned that such a weak policy had run the risk of “the enemy defeating a country of 70 million people”.

“Given the West’s new doctrine against Iran, our country’s officials must resist to the last moment”, he stressed, urging the Iranian government to make use of the country’s geo-strategic position and economic advantages, such as its massive oil reserves, so as to never back down from their stance.

“All of this is at a time when the West’s problem is simply a shaky economy dependent on oil”.

“During last year’s evaluations of various theoretical outcomes, we reached the conclusion that in the event of an oil sales embargo on Iran the price of oil would reach 110 dollars and in the case of a military attack on Iran its price would reach 400 dollars. Therefore, knowing the West’s strategic knowledge of this matter, the oil sanction and military attack options against Iran are just a bluff.”