General backs off on US troop cuts in Iraq

Boston Globe
Oct. 01, 2005

As fresh violence claimed dozens more Iraqi and US lives yesterday, the top US military commander in Iraq backed off previous predictions that a substantial number of US troops would be withdrawn next year, and he warned that a growing political divide over a new constitution could fuel worse bloodshed in the months ahead.

Army General George W. Casey said prospects for reducing US troops depend heavily on the readiness and willingness of the new Iraqi government to take more responsibility for security. But Casey informed US lawmakers that only one out of 100 battalions of Iraqi troops is considered capable of operating independently, two fewer than in June.

Casey said the outcome of the upcoming Oct. 15 referendum on a new Iraqi constitution, as well as December parliamentary elections, would help determine whether conditions on the ground improve enough for some of the nearly 150,000 US troops to return home next year.

''The next 75 days are going to be critical in what happens after that," Casey told a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee, where he appeared with General John Abizaid, the top commander in the Middle East, Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld, and General Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The deadly insurgency raged on yesterday. At least 60 Iraqis were killed in three closely timed suicide bombings in Balad, a city north of Baghdad. In the western town of Ramadi, the military said a roadside bomb killed five US soldiers, bringing the US military death toll in Iraq to 1,934 since the US-led invasion in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count.

Casey, who said in July that ''fairly substantial" troop reductions were in the offing for 2006, was unwilling in his testimony yesterday to predict when large numbers of US forces could come home despite several questions from legislators seeking answers about troop reductions.

Casey also reminded lawmakers that insurgencies usually take a decade to defeat. ''There is no reason that we should believe that the insurgency in Iraq will take any less time to deal with," he said, although he did not say US forces would have to stay that long.

Although Casey insisted that new Iraqi security forces are steadily taking on a greater role in battling the deadly insurgency, his blunt overall assessment indicated that the prospects for a major reduction in US troops early next year is unlikely, unless the security and political situation greatly improves.

At another point, Casey acknowledged that despite efforts to convince Iraqis that the new constitution is a broad compact between diverse groups, ''the perception now is that it's not -- particularly among the Sunni." Further, he added that the growing divide over the constitution could serve to embolden insurgents seeking to spark a civil war.
The document largely reflects the views of the country's Shi'ite Muslim majority and the Kurdish minority who are leading the US-backed government. The Sunni minority largely opposes the constitution, and Sunnis are believed to form the bulk of the insurgent force.

Still, Rumsfeld told lawmakers it appeared that most Sunnis were planning to vote in the December elections.

The Bush administration had hoped that the hearings before the House and Senate yesterday would shore up public confidence in the US-led military effort in Iraq, which has been on a steady slide in recent months.

But the growing concern about the conflict was on full display on Capitol Hill, where the top brass faced tough questions on US progress in training Iraqis to defend themselves, considered a key measure in whether the United States will be able to begin reducing its own presence. Some of the fiercest criticism came from Republicans.

''It doesn't feel like progress," remarked Senator Susan Collins, a Republican from Maine.

When Casey reported that one Iraqi battalion was prepared to operate without US support, Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, shot back: ''It was three before. . . . Now we're down to one battalion?"

''Right," Casey said, ''and things change in the battalions. I mean, we're making assessments on personnel, on leadership, on training. . . . There are a lot of variables that are involved here, Senator."

Casey did not fully explain why the number of combat-ready units has declined despite continued training efforts.

Casey and Abizaid told lawmakers that training Iraqis to take over for US and allied troops remains a struggle.

''We fully recognize that Iraqi armed forces will not have an independent capability for some time, because they don't have the institutional base to support them," Casey said.

He also said the new Iraqi government was recently unable to pay some of the 67,000 Iraqi police because of a breakdown in Iraqi government operations in some areas, such as Fallujah, where the insurgent presence is heavy. There are a total of 192,000 US-trained Iraqi forces, including police, soldiers, and border patrol, according to Pentagon figures.

Some lawmakers raised concerns about the loyalties of those Iraqi security forces, citing reports that insurgents have been infiltrating the Iraqi forces in significant numbers. There are ''continuing reports that the Iraqi police and security forces we're training are substantially infiltrated by insurgents," Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Democrat of Massachusetts, said in questioning Rumsfeld.

Rumsfeld responded, ''It's a problem that's faced by police forces in every major city in our country, that criminals infiltrate and sign up to join the police force."

However, the top US intelligence official said yesterday that the make-up and organization of the increasingly violent Iraq insurgency remains a puzzle to US officials 2 1/2 years after the US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein.

Some of the deadliest attacks are attributed to Islamic terrorists from across the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe. But a recent study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington concluded the insurgency is primarily made up of Iraqi Sunnis who supported Hussein and fear a loss of power to the Shias, and other Iraqi nationalists who see the new government as a US puppet.

John Negroponte, director of national intelligence, acknowledged yesterday that no one knows for sure, saying there is a ''feeling that much more could be still done in terms of finding out now what the nature of that insurgency is."

''It's a very, very difficult issue," Negroponte, the former ambassador to Iraq, said in a speech to intelligence officers in Washington. He said there is ''no intelligence issue more important than understanding the nature of the insurgency in all of its aspects."