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Apr. 04, 2022
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Though Europe is being devastated by Western sanctions targeting Russia, Russia is expected to see record oil and gas earnings and a budget surplus as a result of surging oil and gas prices, which is their main export.
Janis Kluge, a researcher at the German Science and Politics Foundation, detailed how the sanctions were backfiring in an interview with NTV.de on Thursday.
“Almost half of the Russian budget is based on transactions with oil and gas. The state earns enormously from production taxes and export duties. It receives the income in rubles, and the amount is determined by two factors: firstly, by energy prices on the world market and, secondly, by the exchange rate of the ruble,” Kluge told NTV.de.
"The gas price on the spot markets has quintupled within the past year. That means Gazprom will have record revenues," he said.
"Russia planned the national budget with a dollar-ruble exchange rate of 72, but now the ruble is around 85, much weaker, but with a view to energy exports this is an advantage. If we multiply the oil price by the ruble exchange rate, it shows that Moscow expected revenues of around 4,500 rubles per barrel of oil, but is getting much more, around 7,000 rubles," Kluge said.
Kluge predicted "record oil and gas revenues" will not only offset losses from inflation and reduced tax revenues but lead to a budget surplus.
Bloomberg News reported on Friday that "Russia will get an estimated $321 billion in energy exports in 2022, marking a surge of more than a third compared to last year."
"It's also on track for a record current-account surplus that the Institute of International Finance says may reach as high as $240 billion," Bloomberg News said.
Slovakia, which receives 85% of its gas supplies from Russia, said Sunday they are willing to pay for gas supplies in rubles, as Putin demanded.
The ruble recovered all its post-sanctions loses and is currently trading slightly higher than it was when the war began.
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