NYT Reports U.S. Murder Rate for 2018 'On Track for a Big Drop,' Doesn't Mention Trump Ending 'War On Cops'Chris Menahan
Dec. 07, 2018
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Apparently, it's just a coincidence that the murder rate is rapidly dropping after President Donald Trump ended Barack Obama's "War on Cops."
From The New York Times:
The murder rate in the United States in 2018 is on track for the largest one-year drop in five years.It's just a coincidence those are the cities where the Black Lives Matter movement had the biggest impact.
If these big cities end the year down about 7 percent from 2017, and if big cities tend to overstate the national trend by about 2.4 percentage points on average, murder should be down by around 4 percent to 5 percent nationally this year.According to the Times, the cause for the drop is an eternal mystery:
Tracking the change in murder nationally is far easier than explaining why itís happening. There is still no consensus on why murder rose nationally in 2015 and 2016, though various theories have been proposed, including simple randomness. Similarly, a projected drop in murder in 2018 would not have an obvious cause. Employment of smarter technologies, expanded community intervention programs, and even colder weather could help explain year-to-year local changes.No doubt it was "simple randomness!"
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