Marc Faber's October Outlook: Forget EU Debt Crisis, A China Meltdown Is The Real Threatby Nathaniel Crawford
Black Swan Insights
Oct. 09, 2011
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> Marc Faber Bullish On U.S. Dollar For Next 6 Months
> Marc Faber releases Gloom Boom Doom Report Marc Faber is out with the latest issue of his famous Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, which is always a must read for serious investors. Unlike most of the other talking heads, Faber has an excellent track record. He correctly predicted the top in the equity markets in Nov. 2007, and caught the bottom in March 2009, making his subscribers a lot of money. Here is a summary of his October 2011 report:
Stocks--Yes, stocks are very oversold, but that does not mean they cannot go lower. The dreadful price action in both Copper and the Shanghai Composite points to new lows for the equity markets. After US stocks make a new low below 1100 on the S&P 500 (SPY), there could be a year-end rally followed by a more meaningful decline into 2012. Investors should use any bounce in stocks as an opportunity to reduce their equity exposure. At this point, Faber advises no more than 25% of your portfolio be in stocks.
Gold--At $1900 gold was extremely overbought, and a correction was necessary. However, Faber now believes that gold could undergo a significant correction similar to what happened between 1974-1976, when gold fell 40%. Faber notes that a large decline in gold is now a distinct possibility. The first support level for gold is at the 200 DMA around $1500. Despite the potential for a pullback, Faber still likes gold and believes it will trade significantly higher.
Dollar--It's true that the dollar has no intrinsic value and is being printed into infinity, but the US dollar will be your best friend for the next few months. As global liquidity contracts on EU debt concerns and a possible hard landing in China, Faber advises investors to be long the dollar. Note this is a short-term call; longer term the dollar is going to zero.
Treasuries--Despite being bullish on the US dollar, Faber does not reccomend treasuries, noting that they are overbought and susceptible to a large correction.
China and Copper--If you think the market is falling because of incompetent EU bureaucrats you are behind the curve. According to Faber, the price of copper is signaling a very serious slowdown (if not complete collapse) in China. This is what is really behind the move down in all commodities. A hard landing in China would be devastating for the global economy. The Shanghai composite is making new lows along with copper, which is very bearish. Also stay away from the Australian and Canadian currencies. If China crashes, these markets will get massacred.
Emerging Markets--Stay away from these at all costs. All emerging markets are falling and making new lows. Even though Faber likes these longer term, they could still fall another 20%-30% before they would be good buys. These markets could even fall to their 2009 lows. However, this will represent a good buying opportunity because these markets will be the first to bottom.
Short Opportunities--There is no doubt about it; shorting in this kind of manipulated market is dangerous, but if you must, here are a few ideas: Apple (APPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Salesforce.com (CRM). Only short these with very tight stops.