Kentucky Senate Race: Rand Paul Leads 48% to 37%

Rasmussen Reports
Feb. 05, 2010

Rand Paul, who picked up Sarah Palin's endorsement on Monday, and fellow Republican Trey Grayson continue to lead their two chief Democratic rivals in Kentucky's contest for the U.S. Senate.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state taken Tuesday night finds Paul leading Democratic Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo 48% to 37%. Three percent (3%) like another candidate, and 12% are undecided.

Paul, an opthamologist and the son of Congressman Ron Paul, is ahead of state Attorney General Jack Conway 47% to 39%. Given that match-up, three percent (3%) favor some other candidate, and 11% are undecided.

Grayson, Kentucky's secretary of state, currently posts a 49% to 35% lead over Mongiardo, with five percent (5%) preferring another candidate and 11% undecided.

A Grayson-Conway contest is the closest of the four potential match-ups with the Republican ahead by just four points, 44% to 40%. Three percent (3%) are looking for another candidate, and 14% are not sure.

Paul's numbers against the two Democrats are little changed from early last month, but Grayson is running better against Mongiarado and a bit worse against Conway.

In late September, Conway ran even with Grayson and beat Paul by four points. Both Republicans have pulled further ahead of Mongiardo, whose numbers have changed little since then.

The men are battling for the seat of retiring GOP Senator Jim Bunning. Both parties will hold primaries on May 18.

Kentucky remains a difficult political environment for Democrats, given the unhappiness of many voters with the national health care plan and the country's continuing economic problems. John McCain carried Kentucky by 17 points over Barack Obama, 58% to 41%, in the November 2008 election.

Just 42% of Kentucky voters now approve of President Obama's job performance, while 57% disapprove. Those numbers include 28% who strongly approve of the job he is doing and 46% who strongly disapprove. This is a higher level of disapproval than is found nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Thirteen percent (13%) of Kentucky voters have a very favorable view of Grayson, while five percent (5%) regard him very unfavorably. For Paul, very favorables total 21%, and very unfavorables are nine percent (9%).

Mongiardo is viewed very favorably by 14% and very unfavorably by 16%. Eleven percent (11%) have a very favorable opinion of Conway, and eight percent (8%) view him very unfavorably.

Just 13% don't know enough about Mongiardo to venture even a soft favorable or unfavorable opinion of him, while roughly one-in-five Kentucky voters have no opinion yet of the other three candidates.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Kentucky voters say their own finances are good or excellent, while 18% rate their finances as poor. Twenty percent (20%) say those finances are getting better, but 42% say they're getting worse.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Kentucky voters believe it is possible to balance the federal budget without raising taxes. Thirty-four percent (34%) disagree. Fifty-one percent (51%) also favor an across-the-board tax cut for all Americans, but 32% are opposed to such a tax cut.

Still, 60% of voters in Kentucky think cutting taxes is a better way to create jobs than increasing government spending. Only 18% say increased government spending is the better way to go.

Forty-nine percent (49%) believe the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror, while only 21% think the terrorists are ahead. Forty percent (40%) in Kentucky say the United States is safer today than it was before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, but 43% disagree.

When it comes to important national issues, 73% of Kentucky voters trust the judgment of the American people more than that of the country's political leaders.

Seventy-one percent (71%) say the federal government has become a special interest group. Seventy-three percent (73%) believe that government and big business often work together to hurt consumers and investors.

Forty-nine percent (49%) now approve of the job Democratic Governor Steve Beshear is doing, down four points from last month. Of that number, 10% strongly approve. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove of Beshear's job performance, including 19% who strongly disapprove.

Democratic Senate incumbents who currently trail their challengers include Harry Reid in Nevada, Michael Bennet in Colorado, Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas and Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania. Democrats Barbara Boxer from California, Evan Bayh of Indiana and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin find themselves in more competitive races than usual.

Republicans lead open-seat Senate races in Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota and Ohio. A Democrat leads in Connecticut. Just after the upset GOP win in the Massachusetts special Senate race last month, political analyst Larry Sabato concluded that if the election were held now, "The (59-seat) Democratic majority in the Senate would be reduced to just 52 seats."

Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio has now jumped to a 12-point lead over Governor Charlie Crist in Florida's Republican Primary race for the U.S. Senate.