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Article posted Aug 27 2007, 3:12 AM

Category: Economy

Source: Ticker Forum

$4.5 billion options bet on catastrophe within four weeks

[Ed. note: I am unable to confirm this as I do not have knowledge of the details at hand. Some people seem to be very concerned about this, it is hard to judge if this is legit. - Chris]

Anybody have a clue as to what these 'investors' are expecting?

The two sales are being referred to by market traders as "bin Laden trades" because only an event on the scale of 9-11 could make these short-sell options valuable.

There are 65,000 contracts @ $750.00 for the SPX 700 calls for open interest. That controls 6.5 million shares at $750 = $4.5 Billion. Not a single trade. But quite a bit of $$ on a contract that is 700 points away from current value. No one would buy that deep "in the money" calls. No reason to. So if they were sold looks like someone betting on massive dislocation. Lots of very strange option activity that I haven't seen before.

The entity or individual offering these sales can only make money if the market drops 30%-50% within the next four weeks. If the market does not drop, the entity or individual involved stands to lose over $1 billion just for engaging in these contracts!

Clearly, someone knows something big is going to happen BEFORE the options expire on Sept. 21.

THEORIES:

The following theories are being discussed widely within the stock and options markets today regarding the enormous and very unusual activity reported above and two stories below. Those theories are:

1) A massive terrorist attack is going to take place before Sept. 21 to tank the markets, OR;

2) China, reeling over losing $10 Billion in bad loans to the sub-prime mortgage collapse presently taking place, is going to dump US currency and tank all of Capitalism with a Communist financial revolution. Either scenario is bad and the clock is ticking. The drop-dead date of these contracts is September 21. Whatever is going to happen MUST take place between now and then or the folks involved in these contracts will lose over $1 billion for having engaged in this activity.

"$1.78 Billion Bet that Stock Markets will crash by third week in September Anonymous Stock Trader Sells 10K Contracts on EVERY S&P/Y "Strike" Shorts Stocks "in the money" effectively selling all his SPY holdings for cash up front without pressuring the market downward.

This is an enormous and dangerous stock option activity. If it goes right, the guy makes about $2 Billion. If he's wrong, his out of pocket costs for buying these options will exceed $700 Million!!! The entity who sold these contracts can only make money if the stock market totally crashes by the third week in September.

Bear in mind that the last time anyone conducted such large and unusual stock option trades (like this one) was in the weeks before the attacks of September 11.

Back then, they bought huge numbers of PUTS on airline stocks in the same airlines whose planes were involved in the September 11 attacks.

Despite knowing who made these trades, the Securities and Exchange Commission NEVER revealed who made the unusual trades and no one was ever publicly identified as being responsible for the trades which made upwards of $50 million when the attacks happened.

The fact that this latest activity by a single entity gambles on a complete collapse of the entire market by the third week in September, seems to indicate someone knows something really huge is in the works and they intend to profit almost $2 Billion within the next four weeks from whatever happens! This is really worrisome."

Source: Ticker Forum

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Anonymous

Posted: Aug 27 2007, 10:56 PM

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69243

Hahahaha... leave it to idiots to spread stupidity. Yeah, 10:48pm EST, 8/27, I see 61,730 Call options at $747. However, You forgot to mention, There's 116, 716 Put options at 700 for $.05 and 30,795 Put options at 800.
Call options mean that they make money as the stocks go UP. The reason why SPX 700 call options is priced at $747, because currently at SPX 1466, each of contracts, if expired today, would make $1466-$700=$766. If the SPX goes down, they'd lose money. What you have to worry about is the huge options open for PUT, which bets that it'll go down. Currently, the options are "undervalued" because the market thinks it'll go down. So, if the SPX stands still for 4 weeks, the option buyer just made $19 x100 per contract. That's what the trade means. However, that discount has already been eliminated, because if you see the bid/ask, you see that it is 765.20/768.20, which is fairly priced. Go read some comic books instead.

flyonthewall

Posted: Aug 28 2007, 12:13 PM

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170121

The article above states:

"Despite knowing who made these trades, the Securities and Exchange Commission NEVER revealed who made the unusual trades and no one was ever publicly identified as being responsible for the trades which made upwards of $50 million when the attacks happened."

This writer's speculation:
Whoever made those trades has to be a US Government or other "partner" insider, so it would be impossible for USG staff to reveal their activity. If it was Bin Laden or other obvious enemy, they would trumpet it from the housetops. Perhaps eventually an SEC whistleblower will reveal who. Bush, Rumsfeld, Cheney? Surely, more than one staffer at SEC knows.

Anonymous

Posted: Aug 28 2007, 11:31 PM

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2463

How about this info?

Secret government promises big changes

By Benjamin Fulford

The secret government of the US and EU has promised a major overhaul in the wake of the warning it got from the Chinese secret society, according to a senior Japanese public security police officer and Freemason who has been acting as an intermediary with the Chinese secret society. �Expect big changes this autumn,� he said in comments confirmed by a member of the Japanese royal family. �What you will be seeing is the unwinding of George Bush senior�s 50-year campaign to turn the U.S. into a fascist regime,� the secret police agent says. �George Bush senior is now a broken man showing signs of senile dementia,� he adds.

If the sources are to be believed, U.S. President George Bush�s government will resign, before his term expires, and will be replaced by an interim regime headed by Al Gore. This will start a 2-3 year transition period during which suppressed technology, such as free energy, will be released and a new system for running the planet will be implemented, according to these two sources. �They [The illuminati] know their rule is ending but they do not want it to end in an ugly way,� the security police source says.

The recent market turmoil, including the Chinese threat to sell dollars, was part of the bargaining towards major changes in the secret balance of power, we are told.

Certainly there are some encouraging signs. The tearful resignation of U.S. presidential �brain� Karl Rove removes a central lynchpin of Bush�s regime. Since it follows six other resignations; it does look like rats abandoning a sinking ship.

In Japan, meanwhile, the victory of the opposition Democratic Party in the recent upper house elections could lead to the end of the Iraq and Afghan wars. Japan Democratic Party leader Ichiro Ozawa has promised to block renewal of an �anti-terrorist� bill that allows Japan�s Self-Defense Forces to provide considerable logistical support to the U.S. sponsored wars in the region. Without that support, it is unlikely the U.S. will have enough money or military might to continue the wars.

Since this follows UK Prime Minister Brown�s vow to remove British troops with or without U.S. approval, it will mean the Bush regime has lost its last big war allies. Brown also publicly rebuked Bush during a recent visit by doing such things as pointedly refusing to take home a souvenir he was given.

There are also signs the Japanese election was manipulated behind the scenes to promote a Democratic Party victory in Japan. Just before the election, the Japanese mainstream media suddenly began reporting heavily about a pension scandal the JDP has been talking -unreported- about for at least 5 years. This was crucial for their victory. We may see a general election as early as this fall, followed by the birth of a JDP government and an end to the post-war Japanese regime. It could be a sign of diminished Rockefeller influence in Japan. However, it is not a sign of diminished illuminati control of Japan since Ozawa is himself a Freemason.

Despite the positive developments, the biggest worry is all the public hints about a new �terrorist attack� on the U.S. to be used as an excuse to trigger martial law. However, such an attack at this time �would fool nobody,� the sources said. Many U.S. citizens might be fooled but no other government in the world would believe it. �The secret government knows they cannot use their old tricks anymore,� the sources said.

The Chinese secret societies meanwhile, are watching carefully for any sign of new attempts to spread disease or otherwise carry out genocidal attacks. They only give one warning and have now initiated a news blackout. I am not in the loop about what they would do if a new breach was found but, they did say whatever action they took would be �unpredictable and worse than expected.�

At the same time, an anti-Rothschild alliance has been formed in Tokyo. They warn that the entire Bush regime was probably set up as a �bad cop� to scare people in the arms of the EU �good cop.� They say there may be other surprises, possibly including a fake UFO invasion that Henry Kissinger hinted at during the 1991 Bilderberg meeting. �We will have to look at least four or five steps ahead in order to keep on top of these people,� the alliance says.

So far, the EU only consists of governments that are controlled in secret by the Rothschilds etc. (Turkey is also a Rothschild fief). Their secret parliament, the Bilderbergers, have already shown they are racist by refusing to allow any Japanese to join. As a result, any effort to turn the EU into the base of a world government is doomed to fail.

The anti-Rothschild alliance, (with the discreet backing of the Chinese secret societies), will be contacting leaders of Russia, China, India, the Muslim countries, South America, Africa etc. to create a global alliance that will demand a new way of running the planet.

The UN Security Council will have to be replaced with a new grouping that more accurately represents the people of this planet. As it stands, 4 out of the 5 permanent Security Council members are representatives of Caucasian nations even though only 17% of the world�s people are Caucasian. This global apartheid will have to end.

The world�s financial system will also have to be replaced with a more transparent and equitable system that relies on more than simple human selfish greed as the main incentive for transactions.

Once this is done, a three-year campaign against the five curses of humanity: war, poverty, environmental destruction, ignorance and disease could be carried out. This could be a test case for replacing the Hegelian system of pitting opposite forces against each other in war with a system for people to compete towards agreed upon peaceful goals.

The industries and lobbies that have depended on war and turmoil will have to be given new goals and direction. One possibility would be a long-term campaign to terraform Mars.

People will have to be patient, however. These changes will happen over a period of years, not months. In the meantime, let us see if the autumn surprise appears as promised.

Anonymous

Posted: Aug 29 2007, 12:17 AM

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69243

Is it me, or is this board full of morons & conspiracy theorists

Anonymous

Posted: Aug 29 2007, 7:31 PM

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2463

<<<<2) China, reeling over losing $10 Billion in bad loans to the sub-prime mortgage collapse presently taking place, is going to dump US currency and tank all of Capitalism with a Communist financial revolution. Either scenario is bad and the clock is ticking. The drop-dead date of these contracts is September 21. Whatever is going to happen MUST take place between now and then or the folks involved in these contracts will lose over $1 billion for having engaged in this activity.>>>>
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
China threatens to wreck the US economy by selling precarious US dollars- Americans still buying slave labor goods

China threatens to wreck the US economy by selling precarious US dollars- Americans still buying slave labor goods
Lenin said "When the time comes for us to hang the capitalists, they will compete with each other over the profits of selling us the rope".
Guess What? They aren't going to use a rope.
Lenin also said: "FIRST, we will take Eastern Europe, THEN the masses of Asia. THEN we will encircle the United States, which will be the last bastion of capitalism. We shall not have to attack. It [the U.S.] will fall like a ripe fruit into our hands."
Meanwhile American stores are full of cheap communist slave labor goods...which Americans are BUYING. China is building an automobile factory in Mexico where NAFTA will allow them to import to the US without tariffs.

Anonymous

Posted: Aug 29 2007, 8:28 PM

Link

2463

INDICATORS POINT TO CHINA AS SOURCE OF TERROR

By John Caylor Published on August 28, 2007 This article is the beginning of a series to inform and warn our readers that China is a Terrorist state and our enemy in the war on terrorism. Based upon extensive research we have concluded that China backs and supports al-Qaeda and is the host nation supplying funds and technology to commit worldwide acts of terror. China and the (PLA) Peoples Liberation Army is now posed to escalate their �unrestricted warfare� activities against the Western Hemisphere and the United States, it is highly probable they will soon launch another long planned terror attack on U.S. soil killing thousands of people using suitcase size neutron bombs, leaving false evidence linking the plot specifically to al-Qaeda and Pakistan. It must not be understated that China is the host nation behind it�s puppet al-Qaeda.

http://www.insider-magazine.com/ChinaAlqaeda/China_Alqaeda.html

Anonymous

Posted: Aug 30 2007, 12:16 AM

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67162

Given the downward slide of the Dow and other indices, does it come as a surprise that someone would hedge on this?

Anonymous

Posted: Aug 30 2007, 6:33 PM

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2463

Dispelling the "Ben Laden" Options Trades

By Steven Smith and Aaron L. Task
Staff Reporters
8/30/2007 3:23 PM EDT

Updated from 7:07 a.m.

1. No Savior for Mortgage Biz
2. Mozilo Cashed Out at Top of Market
3. Three Value Stocks to Buy Now
4. How to Pick an Oil Stock
5. Google's New Foe: Hulu

Fisher Investments
E*TRADE FINANCIAL

TD AMERITRADE
Options House

Charles Schwab
Zecco.com

As if the mortgage-market meltdown wasn't enough to spook investors, some market players expressed concerns about unusual options bets that some observers have dubbed "Bin Laden Trades."

The blogosphere and options trading desks have been rife with speculation about these trades, which are unusually large bets that the market will make a huge move in the next month. Some entity, or entities, has taken a large position on extremely deep in the money S&P 500 options, both puts and calls, that won't pay off unless the market undergoes an extremely large price move between now and the options' expiration on Sept. 21.

However, Dan Perper, a Partner at Peak 6, one of the largest option market makers and proprietary trading firms, has confirmed that the trades are part of a "box-spread trade."

"This was done as a package in which the box spread was used [as a] means of alternative financing at more attractive interest rates" explained Perper.

Simply put, two parties agree to trade the box at a price that essentially splits the difference between current rates.

For example, the rough numbers would be that given the September 700/1700 box must settle at a value of 1,000 -- it is currently trading around 997 -- that translates into a 5% interest rate.

For the seller it is a way to borrow money at a slight discount to the prevailing rate, and for the buyer, it is a way to lend money at a low rate of return, but it's better than nothing at a time when others are scared and have painted themselves into a box (ha ha) because they have run out available funds.

Currently there are about 63,000 700/1700 boxes open. Perper expects that once the September options expire, you will see similar boxes established in the December series. As to why the September 700 put has over 116,000 contracts open, Perper thinks a good portion of that was created from the prior rollover when April options expired.

The positions in question had option industry experts perplexed to come up with a rational explanation, which are far from the best or most efficient way to profit from what would be outlier events.

Those concerned about the worst-case scenario recalled that large put contracts were placed on airline stocks, notably American, a unit of AMR and United Airlines, in the weeks leading up to the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks.

The first area of focus was that open interest September 700 S&P puts had such an unusually high number for such a low-probability trade. A put is a defensive bet that gives the holder the right to sell a security at a specified price, in this case more than 50% below the S&P 500's current level of 1463 as of Wednesday's close.

For comparison's sake, according to the Option Clearing Corp., the open interest in the July 700 strike some three weeks prior to expiration on July 20 was 790 calls and 7,300 puts, and the August 700 strike showed 1,250 calls and 14,800 puts prior to Aug. 17 expiration.

And the volume completely outstrips anything seen last September, when the S&P was around 1300, some 20% below current levels. In September 2006, the 700 strike had 600 calls and 7,500 puts, and no strike below 1000 had open interest surpassing 42,000 contracts, and that was the 900 puts.

http://www.thestreet.com/_email/newsanalysis/optionsfutures/10377063.html

Medicis

Posted: Sep 02 2007, 8:52 AM

Link

6512

For those who inanely charge others with being 'conspiracy theorists'. Calling others CT's is much more reflective about the stupidity and base intentions of the accuser.

From Laurie Manwell's paper available at the journal for 911 studies

Faulty Towers of Belief: Part II. Rebuilding the Road to Freedom of Reason By Laurie A. Manwell

"In a culture of fear, we should expect the rise of new mechanisms of social control to deflect distrust, anxiety, and threat� Our findings suggest that authors use the conspiracy theorist label as (1) a routinized strategy of exclusion; (2) a reframing mechanism that deflects questions or concerns about power, corruption, and motive; and (3) an attack upon the personhood and competence of the questioner. This label becomes dangerous machinery at the transpersonal levels of media and academic discourse, symbolically stripping the claimant of the status of reasonable interlocutor � often to avoid the need to account for one�s own action or speech. We argue that this and similar mechanisms simultaneously control the flow of information and symbolically demobilize certain voices and issues in public discourse�Variants of the label conspiracy theorist become dangerous. The mechanism allows those who use it to sidestep sound scholarly and journalistic practice, avoiding the examination of evidence, often in favor of one of the most important errors in logic and rhetoric � the ad hominem attack. [italics added]"

Anonymous

Posted: Sep 02 2007, 5:28 PM

Link

78146

QUOTE: Posted: Aug 29 2007, 12:17 AM

"Link
69.243.XXX.XXX Is it me, or is this board full of morons & conspiracy theorists"

No it's not you we are all idiots with nothing better to do, who neglect our children whilst wasting our time crying at dead school-age 'neutrals' as democracy spreads, in this age of progress, whilst things just get better for all, enemies are vanquished by our lovely governments in an open and fair dual, and medical establishments speed up the slow evolution of our genes just to keep up with all this lovely progress in the absence of natural selection or god.

P.S> The necessary indiscriminate bombing won't reach your house in America, rest assured, and you can continue to receive your epistle of truth (New York Times). in your mailbox

bolly

Posted: Sep 02 2007, 5:32 PM

Link

above post by me

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