Professor Who Predicted Last Five Elections Says Trump Will WinChris Menahan
Oct. 23, 2016
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Professor Helmut Norpoth's "primary model" has accurately predicted the results of every election since 1996.
Rather than try and gauge public opinion, Norpoth looks at the votes candidates actually receive.
During the primaries, Trump outperformed Clinton in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Norpoth says this is hugely indicative of turnout in the general.
Additionally, Norpoth's "swing of the pendulum" model factors in Obama having just had 8 years in office, which also has been shown historically to shift the odds in the challenger's favor.
All told, he says Trump's odds of winning are 87%.
The fake news media is currently in overdrive manufacturing a bunch of fake polls just like they did during the primaries to demoralize Trump supporters. Simultaneously, they're ignoring every reputable poll showing Trump's ahead.
Hopefully, the media's hoaxing will backfire and end up with Democrats staying home on election day because they wrongly think they're ahead 12 points, while Trump supporters thirsty for Brexit-style change get out the vote like never before, just as happened in the primaries.
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