Is a New World Order in the Making?

By Dr Abdullah Al Shayji
Dec. 19, 2008

If all goes well we are at the dawn of a major realignment and shift in power in the international system, even more profound than the one witnessed following the US-led war to liberate Kuwait, the demise of the Soviet Union and the end of the bipolar system in 1991.

George H.W. Bush boasted in 1991 following the war to liberate Kuwait and after the demise of the Soviet Union, that we are witnessing a new world order.

“Until now, the world we’ve known has been a world divided - a world of barbed wire and concrete blocks, conflict and cold war. Now, we can see a new world coming into view. A world in which there is the very real prospect of a new world order.

In the words of Winston Churchill, “A world order in which ‘the principles of justice and fair play … protect the weak against the strong … A world where the United Nations, freed from cold war stalemate, is poised to fulfill the historic vision of its founders. A world in which freedom and respect for human rights find a home among all nations… Even the new world order cannot guarantee an era of perpetual peace. But enduring peace must be our mission.”

Bush, the son, reduced that new world order to ruins through his doctrine that derived from much angst and bravado. His doctrine was grounded on the image of the war president and propelled by the neo-conservatives’ ideology.

The younger Bush would not think twice about fighting wars and launching preemptive strikes. His administration divided the world into “with us and against us”.

Furthermore, the Bush administration institutionalized systemic torture and secret prisons, and sought to portray prisoners of war as “enemy combatants” who deserved none of the rights of the former category. All this and more knocked the US down from its high moral and ethical pedestal.

Even US allies, lectured on human rights and chastised for the alleged mistreatment of their citizens, realized the US was “living in a glass house”.

The Bush administration, even brushed off its Nato and EU allies as “Old Europe”, making ever more enemies and fewer friends.

Because of that there was much hope pinned on Obama’s victory and the change he would be able to bring to bear on the US political, social and economic landscapes and on the international system as well.

The new world order which the Obama administration and the majority party in the US Congress would foster multilateralism, would reconcile US relations and standing in the world where the Bush administration failed to win the battle for hearts and minds around the world.

The first signs of the new world order manifested itself even before the Bush administration left town. The G20 Summit which was held in Washington earlier this month debuted the rising stars such as Russia, China, India, Brazil and others.

Henry Kissinger recently said in an article titled An End of Hubris for The Economist’s annual “World in 2009″ edition, that “although, America will be less powerful, but still the essential nation in creating a new world order… America will remain the most powerful country, but will not retain the position of self-proclaimed tutor.

“As it learns the limits of hegemony, it should define implementing consultation beyond largely American conceptions. The G8 will need a new role to embrace China, India, Brazil and perhaps South Africa.”

Kissinger concludes, “All this requires a new dialogue between America and the rest of the world. Other countries, while asserting their growing roles, are likely to conclude that a less powerful America still remains indispensable.

America will have to learn that world order depends on a structure that participants support because they helped bring it about. If progress is made on these enterprises, 2009 will mark the beginning of a new world order”.

To validate Kissinger’s thesis, the National Intelligence Council recently, released “The Global Trends 2005 - A Transformed World report” predicting, although the US will remain the most powerful country in 2025, the rise of emerging powers and regional blocs will make the US lose its superpower status.

Closer to our region, the report predicts a world where there is a higher risk of nuclear conflict. It predicts, non-Arab Muslim states such as Iran, Turkey and Indonesia as central players. The report, predicts that Iran might acquire nuclear weapons which might spark a regional arms race.

It sees the world is shifting towards a multi-polar system with a less dominant US and a more powerful China and India. In addition to a “historic” transfer of wealth from the West to the East.

The Report concludes the US would be ever more constricted by: scientific advances in other countries, the expansion of irregular warfare by state and non-state actors, the proliferation of long-range precision weapons and the growing frequency of cyber warfare.

All of that will change the current World structure to an unrecognizable one by 2025.

“The NIC analysis warned such multi-polar systems have historically been more unstable than bipolar or unipolar ones. It added that while it was likely to have strategic rivalries over trade, investment, technological innovation and acquisition, it could not rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries.”

It seems we are at the dawn of a new world order representing a major realignment in the international system.

[Courtesy: Gulf News -- The writer is Professor of International Relations and the Head of the American Studies Unit- Kuwait University]